Predicting general criminal recidivism in mentally disordered offenders using a random forest approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
BACKGROUND Psychiatric expert opinions are supposed to assess the accused individual's risk of reoffending based on a valid scientific foundation. In contrast to specific recidivism, general recidivism has only been poorly considered in Continental Europe; we therefore aimed to develop a valid instrument for assessing the risk of general criminal recidivism of mentally ill offenders. METHOD Data of 259 mentally ill offenders with a median time at risk of 107 months were analyzed and combined with the individuals' criminal records. We derived risk factors for general criminal recidivism and classified re-offences by using a random forest approach. RESULTS In our sample of mentally ill offenders, 51% were reconvicted. The most important predictive factors for general criminal recidivism were: number of prior convictions, age, type of index offence, diversity of criminal history, and substance abuse. With our statistical approach we were able to correctly identify 58-95% of all reoffenders and 65-97% of all committed offences (AUC = .90). CONCLUSIONS Our study presents a new statistical approach to forensic-psychiatric risk-assessment, allowing experts to evaluate general risk of reoffending in mentally disordered individuals, with a special focus on high-risk groups. This approach might serve not only for expert opinions in court, but also for risk management strategies and therapeutic interventions.
منابع مشابه
Mentally disordered offenders - a longitudinal study of forensic psychiatric assessments and criminal recidivism
متن کامل
On the outcome of the treatment of mentally disordered criminal offenders (according to §64 German penal code) suffering from addictive disorders
OBJECTIVE To provide an overview on the increase of forensic psychiatric hospitalizations in Saxony, and present findings on criminal conviction and recidivism rates of 277 criminal offenders ordered to a forensic psychiatric facility caring for addictive disorders between 1996 and 2001. METHODS Cluster- and regression-analytic procedures identified predictive variables for declaring the fore...
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متن کاملActuarial prediction of violent recidivism in mentally disordered offenders.
BACKGROUND Actuarial instruments may be useful in predicting long-term violence in mentally disordered patients. We compared two instruments that differ in terms of what they are designed to predict (general versus violent recividism) and the inclusion of stable mental health variables. METHOD A large sample of mentally disordered patients were scored on two risk assessment instruments, the V...
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عنوان ژورنال:
دوره 15 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2015